Results of a new poll administered by University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware were released on October 10. The poll asked interviewees from Delaware for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware poll results
According to the results, 51.0% of respondents indicated that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 16 to September 28, among a random sample of 762 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.1 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, one should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 63.0% for Clinton and 37.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 60.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Delaware. Relative to her numbers in the University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware poll Clinton's poll average is 3 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in Delaware. Hence, Polly's prediction is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is negligible.