LA Times published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
LA Times poll results
The results show that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump have the same level of support, each with 44.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from October 5 to October 11. A total of 2868 participants responded. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share. In the latest LA Times poll on October 10 Clinton received only 48.9%, while Trump received 51.1%.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 3.5 percentage points worse in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.2% and Trump 46.8% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.2 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.