On October 5, The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Illinois were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll results
Of those who answered the question, 53.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 27 and October 2. The sample size was 865 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 65.4% for Clinton and 34.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Illinois has Clinton at 59.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in Illinois. That is, Polly's prediction is 9.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is significant.