Quinnipiac released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 7 to October 11, among a random sample of 1735 registered voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-2.4 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can include substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump. In the latest Quinnipiac poll on June 5 Clinton obtained 54.2%, while Trump obtained only 45.8%.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. This means that Polly's prediction is 4.2 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.