Christopher Newport Univ.CNU published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Virginia has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, predictions in this state are of particular importance.
Christopher Newport Univ.CNU poll results
Of those who replied, 42.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 30. A total of 892 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Virginia polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.6%. This value is 1 percentage point higher than her respective numbers in the Christopher Newport Univ.CNU poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote in Virginia. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is negligible.