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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome


As of today, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will obtain 53.1% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.9% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.

According to the econometric models Trump is currently in the lead by 50.1%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 53.4% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.9% of the vote.

In comparison to historical elections, the Democrats' forecast of 52.4% in Citizen forecasts is particularly low. The last time the forecast fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency. At that time, Citizen forecasts predicted a vote share of 47.7% for the Democratic candidate John Kerry.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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