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Arizona: Tossup between Trump and Clinton in latest NBC-WSJ-Marist poll

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On October 10, NBC-WSJ-Marist released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
41

Clinton

42

Trump

The results show that 41.0% of respondents would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from September 6 to September 8, among a random sample of 649 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.8 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be treated with caution, as they often incorporate large biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Trump currently achieves 50.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Arizona. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote in Arizona. Hence, Polly's prediction is 2.6 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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