On October 10, Gravis released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Gravis poll results
The results show that 40.0% of participants said that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 27 to August 27 with 1244 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-2.8 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.6% for Clinton and 52.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Trump currently runs at 50.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Arizona. This value is 2 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Gravis poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote in Arizona. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.8 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.