OH Predictive Insights published the results of a new poll on October 10. In this poll, respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
OH Predictive Insights poll results
According to the results, former First Lady Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump can draw on identical levels of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 28 to September 30. A total of 718 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.7 points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Arizona sees Clinton at 49.6% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.4 percentage points better in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 46.8% and Trump 53.2% of the two-party vote in Arizona. Clinton has 3.2 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Arizona. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is significant.