Vox.Com model shows Trump in the lead

The Vox.Com model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 49.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 50.9%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Vox.Com model Trump's econometric model average is 0.8 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Vox.Com model for Trump are thus 3.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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