LA Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
LA Times poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 4 to October 10 with 2969 participants. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.9% for Clinton and 51.1% for Trump. For comparison: Only 48.3% was obtained by Clinton in the LA Times poll on October 7, for Trump this result was 51.7%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 46.3%. Relative to numbers in the LA Times poll Trump's poll average is 4.8 percentage points worse. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.1% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote is 4.0 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is insignificant.