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Trial-heat model shows Clinton in the lead


The Trial-heat model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.7% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 49.3%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.9%. In comparison to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.8 percentage points worse.

The Trial-heat model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Trial-heat model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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