The Trial-heat model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.7% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 49.3%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.9%. In comparison to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.8 percentage points worse.
The Trial-heat model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Trial-heat model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.