The Time-for-change model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single models often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.1%. Compared to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.