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Time-for-change model: Trump is in the lead

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The Time-for-change model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.1%. Compared to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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