Primary model: Trump is in the lead

The Primary model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 47.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 52.5%.

Putting the results in context

Single models may contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.1%. In comparison to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 5.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.