Detroit NewsDetroit News published the results of a new poll on October 10. In this poll, interviewees from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Detroit NewsDetroit News poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 27 to September 28, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they can include large biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 53.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Michigan. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Detroit NewsDetroit News poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote in Michigan. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.