Results of a new poll carried out by OpinionWorks were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
The results show that 54.0% of interviewees will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30. A total of 754 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.5% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the PollyVote is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is significant.