Politico/Morning Consult published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Politico/Morning Consult poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of respondents said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% said that they would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out via Internet from October 10 to October 10 among 1757 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-2.4 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump. On October 8 Clinton received only 52.3% in the Politico/Morning Consult poll and Trump received 47.7%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 53.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. Compared to numbers in the Politico/Morning Consult poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote.