Lockerbie model: Clinton is in the lead
The Lockerbie model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 50.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 49.6%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.9%. Compared to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.5 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lockerbie model for Clinton are thus 2.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.