Lockerbie model: Clinton is in the lead

The Lockerbie model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 50.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 49.6%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.9%. Compared to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.5 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lockerbie model for Clinton are thus 2.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.