The Lewis-Beck & Tien model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single models can incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 49.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.