Lewis-Beck & Tien model: Clinton is in the lead

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models can incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 49.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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