Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 50.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 2 to September 5 with 1000 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 58.0% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.