The Keys to the White House model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 49.7% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 50.3%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models can contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 46.6%. This value is 3.8 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Keys to the White House index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Keys to the White House model.