Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump
The Jérôme & Jérôme model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton and Trump will each garner 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.9%. In comparison to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.2 percentage points better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% and Trump 47.4% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.5 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.