Issue-index model shows Clinton in the lead
The Issue-index model is captured in the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 56.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 43.8%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be treated with caution, as they can include substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, you should look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton can currently count on 53.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Compared to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.7 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.