Holbrook model: Clinton is in the lead

The Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.5%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.9%. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Holbrook model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.