Holbrook model: Clinton is in the lead

The Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.5%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Holbrook model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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