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Hawaii: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

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The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 70.1% for Clinton, and 29.9% for Trump in Hawaii.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 69.3% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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