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Fiscal model model: Trump is in the lead

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The Fiscal model model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.

The Fiscal model model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 4.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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