Fair model shows Trump in the lead

The Fair model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 50.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.9 percentage points worse.

The Fair model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 8.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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