The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, as they often include large biases. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 50.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.
The Electoral-cycle model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.