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Electoral-cycle model: Trump is in the lead


The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, as they often include large biases. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 50.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.

The Electoral-cycle model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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