DeSart model: Clinton tied with Trump

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a tie, with each candidate obtaining 50% of the two-party vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 49.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. When compared to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.1 percentage points worse in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% and Trump 47.4% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.8 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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