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Convention bump model shows Clinton in the lead


The Convention bump model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.8%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 49.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Convention bump model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.

The Convention bump model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Convention bump model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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