The Convention bump model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.8%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 49.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Convention bump model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.
The Convention bump model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Convention bump model.