California: 26 points lead for Clinton in latest KABC/SurveyUSA poll
By KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
The results show that 59.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 27 to September 28, among a random sample of 732 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.6 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California has Clinton at 61.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.0% of the two-party vote in California. This means that the combined PollyVote is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.
