The combined PollyVote today forecasts a national major-party vote share of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.
In contrast to the combined PollyVote, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.1%.
Index models predict a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 49.9% the econometric models differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to historical elections, the Democrats' forecast of 54.3% in prediction markets is notably high. The last time the forecast exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 1996,. Back then,prediction markets predicted a vote share of 55.3% for the Democratic candidate.