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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome


The combined PollyVote today forecasts a national major-party vote share of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.

In contrast to the combined PollyVote, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.1%.

Index models predict a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 49.9% the econometric models differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Compared to historical elections, the Democrats' forecast of 54.3% in prediction markets is notably high. The last time the forecast exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 1996,. Back then,prediction markets predicted a vote share of 55.3% for the Democratic candidate.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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