Big-issue model shows Clinton in the lead

The Big-issue model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.0% for Clinton, and 49.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of a single index model. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other index models

Clinton currently achieves 53.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. In comparison to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.4 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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