538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.5% for Clinton, and 47.5% for Trump. In comparison, on October 9 Trump was still predicted to gain 47.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, one should look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.