WBUR/MassINC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
According to the results, 60.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 7 and September 10. The sample size was 506 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.4 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 63.5%. Compared to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.4 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 63.9% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. This means that Polly's forecast is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is insignificant.