Vermont: Huge advantage for Clinton in Emerson poll

Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were circulated. The poll asked participants from Vermont for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5 with 600 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 63.8% of the two-party vote in Vermont. This means that the combined PollyVote is 0.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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