UPI/CVOTER released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of participants will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via Internet from October 3 to October 9 among 1350 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-2.7 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump. For comparison: Only 50.0% was gained by Clinton in the UPI/CVOTER poll on September 27, for Trump this result was 50.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll Clinton's poll average is 0 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.5 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.