University of Delaware*University of Delaware* poll in Delaware: Trump behind by 21 points
By University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Delaware were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware poll results
The results show that 51.0% of respondents are going to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 16 to September 28, among a random sample of 762 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 63.0% for Clinton and 37.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Delaware polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 60.0%. In comparison to her numbers in the University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware poll Clinton's poll average is 3 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in Delaware. This means that the combined PollyVote is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.
