Univ. Of North FloridaUniv. Of North Florida released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Florida is traditionally a battleground state, where Republicans and Democrats have historically gained similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Univ. Of North FloridaUniv. Of North Florida poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 27 to October 4, among a random sample of 661 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Florida polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.6%. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Univ. Of North FloridaUniv. Of North Florida poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 50.4% of the two-party vote in Florida. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.