WTHR/Howey Politics published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
WTHR/Howey Politics poll results
Of those who responded, 38.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 3 to October 5, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 46.9% for Clinton and 53.1% for Trump. To compare: Only 45.4% was gained by Clinton in the WTHR/Howey Politics poll on April 21, for Trump this result was 54.7%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Indiana sees Trump at 54.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the WTHR/Howey Politics poll Trump's poll average is 1.8 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 56.5% of the two-party vote in Indiana. That is, the combined PollyVote is 3.4 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is negligible.