Rutgers-EagletonRutgers-Eagleton published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from New Jersey were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Rutgers-EagletonRutgers-Eagleton poll results
The results show that 59.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 6 to September 10 among 735 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 62.8% for Clinton and 37.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 56.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Jersey. In comparison to her numbers in the Rutgers-EagletonRutgers-Eagleton poll Clinton's poll average is 6.4 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 5.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is significant.