Results of a new poll conducted by OpinionWorks were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Maryland for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton is currently at 69.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.3% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 4.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.