Results of a new poll conducted by WRAL-TV/SurveyUSAWRAL/SUSA were distributed. The poll asked participants from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
WRAL-TV/SurveyUSAWRAL/SUSA poll results
The results show that 46.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 29 to October 3 with 656 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they often include large biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.4%. This value is 0.3 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the WRAL-TV/SurveyUSAWRAL/SUSA poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that the PollyVote is 1.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is negligible.