Bloomberg released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Bloomberg poll results
The results show that 46.0% of participants said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 29 to October 2 with 805 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Clinton at 51.5% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Bloomberg poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.