Results of a new poll carried out by ElonElon were circulated. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
ElonElon poll results
According to the results, 45.0% of participants indicated that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 27 to September 30, among a random sample of 660 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 53.6% for Clinton and 46.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.5%. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the ElonElon poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, Polly's forecast is 3.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.