Results of a new poll conducted by Quinnipiac were published. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who answered the question, 49.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 27 and October 2. The sample size was 535 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.2 points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 51.6% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.5%. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.