Albuquerque JournalAlbuquerque Journal released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Mexico were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Albuquerque JournalAlbuquerque Journal poll results
The results show that 44.0% of participants are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 34.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 29. A total of 501 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.4 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't be too confident the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 56.4% for Clinton and 43.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of New Mexico polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 57.3%. Compared to her numbers in the Albuquerque JournalAlbuquerque Journal poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. That is, Polly's prediction is 1.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is insignificant.