Results of a new poll administered by KOB-TV/SurveyUSAKOB-TV/SUSA were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from New Mexico for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
KOB-TV/SurveyUSAKOB-TV/SUSA poll results
The results show that 46.0% of respondents said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% said that they would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 28 to October 2 among 594 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not rely too much on the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 58.2% for Clinton and 41.8% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 57.3% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Mexico. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the KOB-TV/SurveyUSAKOB-TV/SUSA poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.