Keating Research (D)Keating Research (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Colorado were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
In Colorado, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Keating Research (D)Keating Research (D) poll results
The results show that 44.0% of respondents indicated that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 29 with 602 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much faith in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 57.1% for Clinton and 42.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Colorado polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.5%. This value is 2.7 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Keating Research (D)Keating Research (D) poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote in Colorado. That is, the PollyVote is 4.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is significant.